Let's focus on the substance of Rasmussen's opinion: The Ames Straw Poll is very important, but only if Ron Paul doesn't win. It doesn't matter whether or not Ron wins, or even how many percentage points he wins by. The Iowa Straw Poll can help every other candidate, but it can only hurt Ron Paul. The voters at Ames can have no bearing whatsoever on Ron Paul's viability as a candidate. A vote for Ron Paul ipso facto makes it irrelevant.