Monday, January 24, 2011

CIA Fun Facts, Submitted by Bruce Krasting of FinancialSense.com

I would not say that these Facts are Fun, but they are instructive.  Every year, and updated weekly, the CIA publishes the World FactBook, a publication that Wikipedia says is:
A reference resource produced by the Central Intelligence Agency of the United States with almanac-style information about the countries of the world.
It provides a two- to three-page summary of the demographics, geography, communications, government, economy, and military of 267 entities[3] including U.S.-recognized countries, dependencies, and other areas in the world.
The World Factbook is prepared by the CIA for the use of U.S. government officials, and its style, format, coverage, and content are primarily designed to meet their requirements.[4] However, it is frequently used as a resource for academic research papers.[5] As a work of the U.S. government, it is in the public domain in the United States.[6]

Here are some quite telling excerpts from the article that demonstrate an ominous economic future:

The Global Economy...
The fiscal stimulus packages put in place in 2009-10 required most countries to run budget deficits - government balances have deteriorated for 14 out of every 15 countries. Treasuries issued new public debt - totaling $5.5 trillion since 2008 - to pay for the additional expenditures. To keep interest rates low, many central banks monetized that debt, injecting large sums of money into the economies. As economic activity picks up, central banks will face the difficult task of containing inflation without raising interest rates so high they snuff out further growth.

Public debt is on the rise... a small increase... from 56.2% to 58.3% of GDP. Only 2.1% [increase]. That doesn’t seem like a big change, right? But look at the implications. Total PSD [Public Sector Debt] rises by 3.4T while global GDP rises by only 3.2T. This means that it takes $1.06 of new debt to create $1 of growth. What better evidence do you need that what we are doing is unsustainable?

The US Contribution to the Global Economy...
World GDP [is] up 4.6% to 74.4 trillion (3.2T YoY).

The US is 20% of total GDP. It contributed only 14% of the total growth. Just a bit more evidence the US economic clout is on the wane.

The US Money Supply...
M1 and M3 (indicators of the total supply of US Dollars)... are rising at 7 and 11% respectively.
If the yearly growth of the US GDP is 3%, then the supply of money is growing twice as fast.  This is another reason to buy Precious Metals, true money, such as Gold and Silver.

The US Consumer Debt...
Domestic credit increases by $10 Trillion (10%) in just one year! Total credit is rising at a rate of 3Xs that of real GDP. Guys like [Economist Paul] Krugman will tell you that this is a good thing. To me it is a sign that hyperinflation can’t be very far off.
Again, go buy "The Metals"!

Global Farming...
More than one-third of the global population are farmers. But they only produce 6% of GDP. Conclusion(s)? We have inefficient farmers all over the world. Food prices are going up...