Is the Great Recession Just a Precursor to an Even Worse Downturn?

From the article by the Economic Policy Journal:

Rick Davis at Consumer Metrics is out with his latest numbers on the economy. They show no end in sight to the current leg of the downturn.

Our data strongly suggests that the consumer portion of this recession did not start out to be about housing or damaged consumer balance sheets. But it is now.

There probably hasn't been two separate recessions in three years, simply one that has evolved in significant ways. But if this really is a "double dip" recession, then our data indicates that the "Great Recession" of 2008 was merely the precursor, and not the main event. It is this current dip that we should be really concerned about; the current contraction in consumer demand is about structural changes in consumer behavior, whereas the "first dip" was about short term loss of consumer confidence.